Commodity Outlook – Sugarcane

agribazaar May 29, 2019

Sowing period (Sugarcane): June to February
Harvesting period (Sugarcane): October to May
Crop season: Kharif

Key growing regions:

Uttar Pradesh – Aligarh, Muzaffarnagar, Ghaziabad, Lakhimpur
Maharashtra – Kolhapur, Pune, Ahmednagar, Aurangabad, Nanded, Amaravati, Nagpur
Karnataka – Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamrajnagar, Bidar
Tamil Nadu – Modak, Attur, Gullapuram, Sankarapuram, Arantangi

Production trend and Stock position:

Sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2019-20 (October-September) is expected to decline at nearly 8% y-o-y.

For MY 2018-19 the production estimates based on current sowing pattern of Sugarcane is explained in the form of an equation (below figures are in MMT):
Opening Stock (OS) + Production (P) = Domestic demand (DD) + Export (E) + Closing Stock (CS)

OS + P = DD + E + CS
10.7 + P = 26 + 3 + 14.7
P = 26 + 3 + 14.7 – 10.7
P = 33
Hence the production estimate is 33 MMT for MY 2018-19.

Sugar millers in Maharashtra have raised an alert of a possible drastic dip in production as Maharashtra accounts for about 34% of India’s total Sugar production. It may end up producing less than half of 107.2 Lakh tonnes (lt), its output last season.

Note: On February 14, 2019 Government hiked Minimum Selling Price (MSP) of Sugar to Rs. 31 per kg (Rs. 3,100 per quintal) from Rs. 29 per kg for the year 2019-20 hence there was a spike in the price.

Market commentary: Price outlook

Sugar M grade is currently trading above MSP levels in a range of Rs. 3,150 – 3,170 per quintal and is expected to move upwards to Rs. 3,200 in the immediate to short term.
Fair and remunerative price (FRP) of Sugarcane for 2018-19 is Rs. 275 per quintal compared to Rs. 255 per quintal in 2017-18.
Sugar prices are expected to trade on a higher end according to Agriwatch website due to good supply from sugar mills in the physical markets. There are also expectations of weak cane crushing this season in key producing states of UP, Maharashtra and Karnataka which contribute 55% of Sugar.