Commodity Outlook – Mustard Seed

Sowing period: October to December
Harvesting period: February to April
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing regions:

  1. Rajasthan – Ganganagar, Alwar, Tonk, Baran
  2. Uttar Pradesh – Agra, Sitapur, Aligarh, Etah
  3. Madhya Pradesh – Morena, Gwalior, Bhind, Shivpuri
  4. Gujarat – Banaskanth, Patan, Mehsana, Surendranagar

Production trend and Stock position:

  • According to Ministry of Agriculture, the sowing acreage of Mustard seed as on December 4, 2020 was 61.82 lakh hectares (lh) up by 7.68 percent compared to 57.41 lh during the corresponding period.
  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture fourth advance estimate released on August 19, 2020, Mustard Seed production was 91.16 lakh tonnes (LMT) compared to FY 2018-19 which was 92.56 LMT, down by 1.51 percent.
  • Stock positions of Mustard Seed were up by 17.36 percent held at National Commodity Clearing Limited (NCCL) approved warehouses at Alwar, Bikaner, Jaipur, Kota, Sriganganagar and Tonk locations. The stocks held as on December 2, 2020 was 18,804 MT compared to 16,023 MT as on November 11, 2020.

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, Seasonal cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto December 2, 2020 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 0 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Note: Prices of Mustard seed are currently in a Backwardation where the physical market Spot prices are higher than the expected Futures prices

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Mustard Seed by 5.08 percent to ₹ 4,650 per quintal for marketing season 2020-21 compared to ₹ 4,425 in 2019-20.
  • Mustard seed prices are likely to trade range-bound movement with weak bias in the immediate / short term because on expectation of higher acreage.
  • Mustard seeds prices had reached its peak this year compared to last five years’ prices which has led to some expectations from farmer’s intention to sow Mustard seed during this Rabi season, which can be seen in the weekly sowing data released by the Mistry of Agriculture.

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