Commodity Outlook – Paddy

Sowing period: June to September
Harvesting period: October to February
Crop season: Kharif

Sowing period: November to February
Harvesting period: March to June
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing regions of Paddy Kharif and Rabi:

  1. Punjab: Fatehgarh, Sangrur, Ludhiana, Moga , Ferozepur, Bhatinda
  2. Haryana: Kurukshetra, Pachkulla, Fathabad, Ambala, Karnal, Sirsa, Yamunanagar
  3. Uttar Pradesh – Hardoi, Kanpur, Fatehpur, Bahraich, Raebarelli
  4. Madhya Pradesh – Raisen, Hoshangabad, Seoni, Rewa, Gwalior
  5. West Bengal – Burdwan, Birbhum, Murshidabad, Coochbehar
  6. Chattisgarh – Balod, Dhamtari, Balodabazar, Mahasamund, Raipur
  7. Andhra Pradesh – Kurnool, West Godavari

Production and Sowing estimates:

  • As per Ministry of Agriculture sowing report, Paddy sowing area till September 18, 2020 was 406.97 lakh hectares (lh) which was up by 7.46 percent compared to last year’s 378.71 lh
  • Paddy sowing has now ended all over India along with the final sowing of other major Kharif crops such as pulses, coarse cereals, millets and oilseeds
  • Government procurement of Paddy from farmers at minimum support price (MSP) started from September 26, 2020 in Punjab and Haryana, which contributes to most of the central pool of food grains, as the procurement process usually starts from the first week of October
  • Agency wise procurement of Paddy for Kharif marketing (KMS) 2020-21 stood at 42.54 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) as on October 12, 2020 comprising of Food corporation of India (FCI) at 0.64 LMT and 41.90 LMT from different states of India whereas for KMS 2019-20 as on October 12, 2020 total procurement stood at 765.54 LMT comprising of FCI at 7.52 LMT and different states of India at 758.02 LMT

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, Seasonal cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto September 30, 2020 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by +9%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Table 1: Seasonal Rainfall Scenario for Monsoon Season of 2020 from June 1 to September 30, 2020

Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Chart 1: Mandi Arrivals of Paddy – Basmati Variety (in MT) from major producing states in India

Chart 2: Mandi Arrivals of Paddy – Common Variety (in MT) from major producing states in India

Note: October Mandi arrivals are for the period: 1 – 15 October, 2020

Chart 3: Price movement of Paddy – Basmati Pusa 1121 variety ( ₹ per Quintal) Kota, Rajasthan – Spot vs NCDEX Futures October expiry

Note: Markets have currently in Contango where the Futures market prices are higher than the Spot market prices

Chart 4: Price movement of Paddy ( ₹ per Quintal) – Karnal, Haryana – Spot market prices

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • Prices of Paddy in the physical markets have been declining over the past few months even though it has been trading above the MSP levels
  • Paddy prices are likely to trade rangebound to weak in immediate / short term
  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Paddy by 2.92 percent to ₹ 1,868 per quintal for marketing year (MY) 2020-21 compared to ₹ 1,815 in 2019-20

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