Commodity Outlook – Soybean

Sowing period: June to July
Harvesting period: October to November
Crop season: Kharif

Key growing regions:

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Sehore, Raisen, Bhopal, Vidisha, Sagar, Guna, Harda, Hoshangabad, Betul
  2. Maharashtra – Buldhana, Latur, Amravati, Yavatmal, Washim, Nanded, Akola, Hingoli
  3. Rajasthan – Kota, Bundi, Baran, Pratapgarh, Jhalawar, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Tonk
  4. Karnataka – Belgaum, Bidar, Dharwad, Haveri

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture second advance estimate released on February 24, 2021, Soybean production for FY 2020-21 was 137.11 lakh metric tonne (LMT) compared to FY 2019- 20 which was 112.26 LMT, up by 22.14 per cent
  • Stock positions of Soybean were down by 35.55 per cent held at National Commodity Clearing Limited (NCCL) approved warehouses at Akola, Indore, Kota and Latur locations. The stocks held as of May 16, 2021, was 11,693 MT compared to 18,142 MT as of April 15, 2021
  • As per the April 2021 USDA report, the USA, India and Argentina’s Soybean production estimate for 2020-21 has been unchanged at 112.5, 10.7 and 47.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively as compared to previous months’ data, whereas Global production was up by 0.38 per cent stood at 363.18 MMT as compared to previous years 361.82 MMT
  • Brazil’s Soybean production according to the April 2021 USDA report, has been up by 1.49 per cent at 136 MMT as compared to previous months 134 MMT, whereas National Supply Company (CONAB) has raised its estimate by 8.57 per cent at 135.54 MMT for 2020-21 as compared to 124.845 MMT in the previous year

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s pre-monsoon season till May 12, 2021, is below the Long Period Average (LPA) by 19 per cent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Soybean by 4.58 per cent to ₹ 3,880 per quintal for marketing year (MY) 2020-21 compared to ₹ 3,710 in 2019-20
  • Soybean prices are likely to trade range-bound movement with weak bias in the immediate /short term due to a decline in crushing demand for seed as the prices are very high
  • Overall Soybean spot market prices have been through a strident rise, trading way above MSP because according to various media reports there has been strong export demand for Soymeal amid sluggish mandi arrivals of Soybean which has pushed the prices higher

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