Commodity Outlook – Wheat

Sowing period: October
Harvesting period: April to May
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing locations:

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Ujjain, Ratlam, Dhar, Sehore, Indore
  2. Rajasthan – Kota, Baran, Chittorgarh, Bundi, Jhalawar
  3. Uttar Pradesh – Kanpur, Varanasi, Agra, Bahraich, Hardoi
  4. Maharashtra – Mumbai, Vashim, Dhule, Akola, Nandurbar
  5. Gujarat – Rajkot, Sabarkantha, Dahod, Junagarh, Ahmedabad

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture third advance estimate FY 2018-19 released on June 03, 2019, Wheat production was 101.20 MMT compared to FY 2017-18 which was 98.61 MMT, up by 2.63 percent.
  • Government has fixed Wheat procurement target at 35.70 MMT for 2019-20. Last year government surpassed its procurement target of 32 MMT and procured 35.5 MMT.
  • According to Department of Food & Public Distribution the government had offered 52,52,981 MT of Wheat in open market sale scheme (OMSS) until its fourth tender on June 2019, out of which 91,000 MT was sold though no rakes.

Note: Markets currently are in Contango where the Futures market prices are higher than the Spot market prices.

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • Overall physical market prices across centres of Wheat have been in the range of Rs. 1,980 – 2,000 per quintal and is expected to trade above Rs. 2,000 per quintal levels.
  • Wheat prices are likely to trade steady to slightly firm in the immediate / short term as arrival pressure is likely to ease in domestic market.

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