Commodity Outlook – Mustard Seed

Sowing period: October to December
Harvesting period: February to April
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing regions:

  1. Rajasthan – Ganganagar, Alwar, Tonk, Baran
  2. Uttar Pradesh – Agra, Sitapur, Aligarh, Etah
  3. Madhya Pradesh – Morena, Gwalior, Bhind, Shivpuri
  4. Gujarat – Banaskanth, Patan, Mehsana, Surendranagar

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture fourth advance estimate released on August 19, 2020, Mustard Seed production was 91.16 lakh tonnes (LMT) compared to FY 2018-19 which was 92.56 LMT, down by 1.51 percent
  • Stock positions of Mustard Seed were down by 75.09 percent held at National Commodity Clearing Limited (NCCL) approved warehouses at Alwar, Bikaner, Jaipur, Kota, Sriganganagar and Tonk locations. The stocks held as on January 21, 2021 was 3,097 MT compared to 12,433 MT as on December 21, 2020
  • According to Ministry of Agriculture, the sowing acreage of Mustard seed as on January 22, 2021 was 73.89 lakh hectares (lh) up by 7.34 percent compared to 63.84 lh during the corresponding period

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s winter season till January 20, 2021 is above Long Period Average (LPA) by 82 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Note: Prices of Mustard seed are currently in a Backwardation where the physical market Spot prices are higher than the expected Futures prices

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Mustard Seed by 5.08 percent to ₹ 4,650 per quintal for marketing season 2020-21 compared to ₹ 4,425 in 2019-20.
  • Mustard seed prices are likely to trade in a range bound movement with firm bias in the immediate / short term, despite estimates of a bigger crop this season due to increased mustard seed sowing.
  • Mustard seeds prices has risen more than 25 percent since last year’s prices and even with the slight correction we have witnessed since last month there would be an upward movement going forward ₹ The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Mustard Seed by 5.08 percent to 4,425 in 2019-20.

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