Commodity Outlook – Mustard Seed

Sowing period: October to December
Harvesting period: February to April
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing regions:

  1. Rajasthan – Ganganagar, Alwar, Tonk, Baran
  2. Uttar Pradesh – Agra, Sitapur, Aligarh, Etah
  3. Madhya Pradesh – Morena, Gwalior, Bhind, Shivpuri
  4. Gujarat – Banaskanth, Patan, Mehsana, Surendranagar

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture fourth advance estimate released on August 11, 2021, Mustard Seed production was 91.24 lakh tonnes (LMT) compared to FY 2019-20 which was 101.12 LMT, up by 10.83 percent
  • Stock positions of Mustard Seed at National Commodity Clearing Limited (NCCL) approved warehouses at Alwar, Bikaner, Jaipur, Kota, Sriganganagar and Tonk locations were down by 2.81 percent. The stocks held as on October 21, 2021 was 16,405 MT as compared to 16,879 MT held on September 21, 2021
  • SEBI has banned new position in Mustard futures till further order from beginning of October 8, 2021, however squaring off existing position will be allowed. SEBI has also banned launch of new futures or options contract till further notice, says the regulator, without citing any reason for the ban
  • India’s exports for rapeseed meal during April-August 2021 was up 11.41 percent at 5.42 LMT compared to 4.87 LMT during the same period previous marketing season

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon season till September 30, 2021 is below Long Period Average (LPA) by 1 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the MSP of Mustard Seed by 8.60 percent to ₹ 5,050 per quintal for rabi marketing season (RMS) 2022-23 compared to ₹ 4,650 in 2021-22
  • Mustard seed prices are likely to trade higher due to tight domestic supply and firm mustard oil demand, lower global mustard seed production and bullish global dynamics
  • As there is tight inventory in the country which has been continues to support the Mustard seed prices and there is substantial shortage of mustard seed for crushers

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