Commodity Outlook – Soybean

Sowing period: June to July
Harvesting period:  October to November
Crop season: Kharif

Key growing regions: 

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Sehore, Raisen, Bhopal, Vidisha, Sagar, Guna, Harda, Hoshangabad, Betul
  2. Maharashtra – Buldhana, Latur, Amravati, Yavatmal, Washim, Nanded, Akola, Hingoli
  3. Rajasthan – Kota, Bundi, Baran, Pratapgarh, Jhalawar, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Tonk
  4. Karnataka – Belgaum, Bidar, Dharwad, Haveri

Production trend and Stock position: 

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture third advance estimate released on May 25, 2021, Soybean production for FY 2020-21 was 134.14 lakh metric tonne (LMT) compared to FY 2019-20 which was 112.26 LMT, up by 19.49 percent
  • Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar had launched a seed mini-kit program which was valid till June 15, 2021 in order to enhance the production and productivity of oilseeds and pulses by distributing high yielding varieties of seeds oilseeds to farmers which are provided by the central agencies National Seeds Corporation (NCS), NAFED and Gujarat State Seeds Corporation and wholly-funded by the Centre through the National Food Security Mission
  • Under this strategy, the government will distribute more than 8 lakh soybean mini-kits to achieve self-sufficiency or ‘Aatmanirbhar’ in the production of oilseeds, and this special Kharif program will also bring an additional 6.37 lakh hectare (lh) area under oilseeds and is likely to produce 120.26 lakh quintals of oilseeds and edible oil amounting to 24.36 LMT
  • Buenos Aires Gain Exchange has kept the Argentina 2020-21 Soybean crop harvest estimate higher at 43.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) against previous years estimate of 43 MMT
  • USDA attaché has projected US MY 2021-22 Soybean production forecast at 119.88 MMT up by 6.52 percent from 112.54 MMT in 2020-21
  • Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) has raised its estimate by 0.37 percent at 135.9 MMT for 2020-21 as compared to 135.4 MMT in May 2021 forecast
  • According to the recent USDA June 2021 report, Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6 percent to 386 MMT in next season in expectation of higher crop size in the US and India
  • The same USDA report states that total crop size in India may stand higher by 7.18 percent to 11.2 MMT against 10.45 MMT in this season

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s monsoon season till July 7, 2021 is below the Long Period Average (LPA) by 5 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Soybean by 1.80 percent to ₹ 3,950 per quintal for marketing year (MY) 2021-22 compared to ₹ 3,880 in 2020-21
  • Soybean prices are likely to trade range-bound movement with firm bias in immediate/short term due to rise in crushing demand for seed and also due to the bullish sentiments in the international soybean markets which will lend some support
  • Due to higher Soybean prices in this season, it will encourage farmers in India to cover higher soybean area

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