Commodity Outlook – Soybean

Sowing period: June to July
Harvesting period: October to November
Crop season: Kharif

Key growing regions:

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Sehore, Raisen, Bhopal, Vidisha, Sagar, Guna, Harda, Hoshangabad, Betul
  2. Maharashtra – Buldhana, Latur, Amravati, Yavatmal, Washim, Nanded, Akola, Hingoli
  3. Rajasthan – Kota, Bundi, Baran, Pratapgarh, Jhalawar, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Tonk
  4. Karnataka – Belgaum, Bidar, Dharwad, Haveri

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture first advance estimate released on September 21, 2021, Soybean production for FY 2021-22 was 127.20 lakh metric tonne (LMT) compared to FY 2020- 21 which was 128.97 LMT, down by 1.37 percent
  • India had imported 3.67 LMT of Soybean during Oct’20 – July’21 down by 23.07 percent compared to 4.77 LMT during same period last year and exported 31,530 MT of during Oct’20
  • July’21 down by 55.40 percent as compared to 70,691 MT during same period last year
  • According to USDA Nov’21 report, the global 2021-22 Soybean production estimate decreased to 384.01 million metric tonnes (MnMT) compared to 385.13 Mn MT in the previous month. Global 2021-22 soymeal production is estimated slightly down at 258.51 MnMT compared to 258.13 MnMT in its previous estimate
  • Government has imposed stock limit on edible oils, oilseeds till March 31, 2022 to check prices, the stock limit of all edible oils and oilseeds will be decided by the respective state government/Union territories administration on the basis of available stock and consumption pattern. Exceptions have been provided for exporters and importers
  • Uttar Pradesh has notified a stock limit order on October 12, 2021 on edible oil and oilseeds in the state while states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Haryana have submitted proposal to State government on imposition of Stock Limit for limited period. Additionally, Maharashtra, Odisha, Kerala, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Chandigarh have also initiated the process of fixing Stock Limits
Mandi arrivals of soybean in top three states.

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this season till November 10, 2021 is above Long Period Average (LPA) by 29 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

soybean commodity outlook: Rainfall scenario
soybean commodity outlook
Soybean price movement
soybean commodity outlook

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Soybean by 1.80 percent to ₹ 3,950 per quintal for marketing year (MY) 2021-22 compared to ₹ 3,880 in 2020-21
  • Soybean prices are likely to trade range bound with weak biasin immediate / short term amid new crop arrival and weak global cues
  • Overall prices of Soybean are still trading above MSP, though in comparison to YOY the spot prices have been almost up by 48 percent

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