Commodity Outlook – Wheat

Sowing period: October
Harvesting period: April to May
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing locations:

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Ujjain, Ratlam, Dhar, Sehore, Indore
  2. Rajasthan – Kota, Baran, Chittorgarh, Bundi, Jhalawar
  3. Uttar Pradesh – Kanpur, Varanasi, Agra, Bahraich, Hardoi
  4. Maharashtra – Mumbai, Vashim, Dhule, Akola, Nandurbar
  5. Gujarat -Rajkot, Sabarkantha, Dahod, Junagarh, Ahmedabad

Production trend and Stock position:

  • The agriculture ministry’s second advance estimate of production of Wheat, released on 18 February 2020, has projected a record high production of 106.21 million tonnes. It is higher by 2.61 million tonnes as compared to wheat production during 2018-19 and is higher by 11.60 million tonnes than the average wheat production of 94.61 million tonnes.
  • According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the sowing acreage of Wheat as on January 31, 2020 was 336.18 lakh hectares (lh) up by 12.32 percent compared to 299.30 lh during the corresponding period.

Source: Agmarknet
Note: March Mandi arrivals are for the period: 1 – 20 March 2020

Source: NCDEX
Note: Markets currently are in Contango where the Futures market prices are higher than the Spot market prices.

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • Wheat prices are likely to trade steady to slightly weak to below Rs 2,000 per quintal levels in the immediate/short term.
  • Overall spot market prices of Wheat have been trading above Rs 1,900 – 2,200 per quintal amid bumper crop that is expected this season and new crop arrival which is expected to pick up in the coming days which would lead to fall in prices.

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