Commodity Outlook – Wheat

Sowing period: October
Harvesting period: April to May
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing locations:

  1. Madhya Pradesh – Ujjain, Ratlam, Dhar, Sehore, Indore
  2. Rajasthan – Kota, Baran, Chittorgarh, Bundi, Jhalawar
  3. Uttar Pradesh – Kanpur, Varanasi, Agra, Bahraich, Hardoi
  4. Maharashtra – Mumbai, Vashim, Dhule, Akola, Nandurbar
  5. Gujarat -Rajkot, Sabarkantha, Dahod, Junagarh, Ahmedabad

Production trend and Stock position:

  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture fourth advance estimate released on August 19, 2020, Wheat production was 107.59 million metric tonnes (Mn MT)\ compared to FY 2018-19 which was 103.60 Mn MT, up by 3.85 percent.
  • According to the data published on the Food Corporation of India (FCI), government agencies across the country have purchased 38.98 Mn MT of Wheat in the current Rabi marketing year (MY) 2020-21.
  • According to Department of Food & Public Distribution, the government had sold 3,390 tonnes MT of Wheat in open market sale scheme (OMSS) through E-Auctions in the first week of September 2020 and till now no rakes have been sold or any by any state Government.
  • According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) India’s overall export of Wheat from April to June 2020 was 1.03 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) valued at ₹ 219.44 crores.

Monsoon update:

For the country as a whole, Seasonal cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwest monsoon season upto September 9, 2020 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by +7%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Table 1: Seasonal Rainfall Scenario for Monsoon Season of 2020 from June 1 to September 9, 2020

Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Note: September Mandi arrivals are for the period: 1 – 18 September 2020

Note: Markets have currently converged where the Futures market prices are equal the Spot market prices.

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • Wheat prices are likely to trade steady to firm in the immediate / short term because as long as the government continues to distribute free food grains, the demand for wheat will stay weak and there would be no scope for prices to rise either.
  • The Food Crop of India (FCI) has reduced the offer price of wheat under open market sale scheme (OMSS) to ₹ 2,135 per quintal from ₹ 2,245 in order to make storage space for other crops due from August 2020 onward.
  • Overall prices of Wheat across India has been trading below the Minimum support price (MSP) of ₹ 1,925 per quintal.

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