Commodity Outlook – Mustard Seed

Sowing period: October to December
Harvesting period: February to April
Crop season: Rabi

Key growing regions:

  1. Rajasthan – Ganganagar, Alwar, Tonk, Baran
  2. Uttar Pradesh – Agra, Sitapur, Aligarh, Etah
  3. Madhya Pradesh – Morena, Gwalior, Bhind, Shivpuri
  4. Gujarat – Banaskanth, Patan, Mehsana, Surendranagar

Production trend and Stock position:

  • According to Ministry of Agriculture, the sowing acreage of Mustard seed as on January 29, 2021 was 73.94 lakh hectares (lh) up by 7.04 percent compared to 69.08 lh during the corresponding period.
  • As per the Ministry of Agriculture second advance estimate released on February 24, 2021, Mustard Seed production was 104.27 lakh tonnes (LMT) compared to FY 2019-20 which was 91.24 LMT, up by 14.28 percent.
  • Stock positions of Mustard Seed have started to be deposited from this month onwards at National Commodity Clearing Limited (NCCL) approved warehouses at Alwar, Bikaner, Jaipur, Kota, Sriganganagar and Tonk locations. The stocks held as on March 31, 2021 was 45,472 MT.
  • NAFED procurement 8.03 LMT valued at ` 3,557.051 crores under Price Support Scheme (PSS) in 2020-21 from major seed producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh.
  • As per media sources NAFED has sold about 11.5 LMT of old and new stocks while HAFED has offloaded around 4.8 lakh tonnes of Mustard seed of the total 5.30 LMT procured by the agency this year.
  • The Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) has projected India’s Mustard seed output at 89.5 LMT for 2020-21 rabi season and sees higher production of mustard seed in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal and Bihar.

Monsoon Update

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s pre-monsoon season till March 24, 2021 is below Long Period Average (LPA) by 41 percent. Details of the rainfall distribution over the four broad geographical regions of India are given below:

Market commentary: Price outlook

  • The Government had increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Mustard Seed by 5.08 percent to ₹ 4,650 per quintal for marketing season 2020-21 compared to ₹ 4,425 in 2019-20.
  • Mustard seed prices are likely to trade range bound movement with weak bias in the immediate / short term because of the new crop supply pressure, as harvesting is gaining momentum and a bigger crop outlook this season.
  • Mustard seed prices have been at a bull run since April 2020 onwards and has been trading well over the MSP.

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